Udaipur, October 17, 2024 - After the demise of Amrit Lal Meena, the MLA of Salumber Assembly seat, a bypoll is to be held for the vacant seat in November. Election activities have already begun for this tribal-dominated seat. In the last 2023 elections, BJP won the seat, but the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP), which holds a strong base among the tribal population, made waves by securing 51,691 votes, giving sleepless nights to both the Congress and BJP.

In the 2023 Assembly elections, BJP’s late Amrit Lal Meena received 80,086 votes, while Congress's Raghuveer Meena got 65,395 votes, making the BJP’s winning margin 14,691 votes. Meanwhile, BAP’s Jitesh Meena, by securing 51,691 votes, not only shocked Congress but also got the alarm bells ringing for BJP.

Though none of the three major parties (BJP, Congress, BAP) have officially declared their candidates for the Salumber Assembly seat, both big parties are certainly tense about BAP’s potential candidate. Recently, in the National elections, BAP and Congress formed an alliance under the INDIA alliance. If this alliance continues, after BAP’s influential leader Rajkumar Roat, the MLA from Dungarpur's Chaurasi Assembly seat, became the MP from the Banswara-Dungarpur Lok Sabha constituency, then it will undoubtedly be a blow to the BJP. However, there is little likelihood of the alliance remaining intact for the bypoll.

Electoral dynamics for the Salumber seat

This tribal-dominated seat has 55% tribal (ST) voters, with the majority being 47% Meena voters. Scheduled Caste (SC) voters make up 5.21%, while OBC and general category voters account for 38%, with the Patel community making up 8% of this group. Among other communities, there are Brahmins, Rajput, and Jains, while 2.3% of voters belong to the minority Muslim community.

What is the history of the Salumber seat

The Salumber Assembly seat has seen 16 elections so far, with Congress winning nine times, BJP five times, Janata Party (JP) once, and the Independent Party once.

Congress emerged victorious in 1952, 1957, 1967, 1972, 1980, 1985, 1998, 2008, and the 2009 bypolls. Meanwhile, BJP won in 1990, 2003, 2013, 2018, and 2023. Janata Party secured the seat in 1977, and the Independent Party won it in 1962.

2024 Assembly bypoll

After Salumber became a district, Congress benefited in the 2023 general Assembly elections, but BAP’s candidate turned the contest into a triangular battle, dealing a severe blow to Congress’s Raghuveer Meena. The growing presence of BAP in southern Rajasthan is undoubtedly giving sleepless nights to both BJP and Congress this time. BJP will also have to find a leader of Amrit Lal Meena's stature for this seat. Amid discussions about dissolving or reorganising the newly-formed districts by the current BJP government, BJP may face further losses. Udaipur MP Dr Manna Lal Rawat has written a letter to State CM Bhajan Lal Sharma, urging him to retain Salumber district.