Udaipur COVID analysis | 133 positive cases in 72 hours - could it lead to a restricted lockdown

CMHO addresses need to maintain social distancing during the two festivals. Exponsntial rise in positive cases may lead to another lockdown...

By Editor UT Jul 31, 2020, 21:03 IST

Average number of positive cases per day: July - 19; June - 5; May 18
Growth in number of cases in July alone: 85%
Positive cases among Close contacts: 50%
Increase in positive cases in rural / up country areas: 18% in May to 50% in June-July

Dr Dinesh Kharadi, CMHO Udaipur has expressed concern over the sudden rise in cases over the last 72 hours. A total of 133 cases in the last three days has lead the CMHO to address this concern.

He said that with the festival weekend commencing tomorrow (Eid Al Adha - 1 August; Raksha Bandhan - 3 August), the public interaction may lead to increased number of cases. In case this happens, then the CMHO will recommend implementing a lockdown in the district to ward off the exponential increase.

In July, more than 50% of the cases are those of close contacts. This apparently shows that there is more interaction among people and social distancing has either been ignored or not followed in spirit.
The total positives graph has shot up by 85% since the end of June. With 703 cases on 30 June (only 151 cases were added in June), the total positive count has gone up to 1,304 as on day end 31 July.
Cases in rural parts of the district have shot up from 18% in May to nearly 50% in June and July.

Earlier, it was assumed that the spread of COVID will be restricted to urban areas due to people travelling from outside the city or country; rural areas were assumed to be safer and less susceptible to the spread of infection. However, after the migration took place, the rate of increase in the number of cases has surpassed that in the city. The discontinuation of quarantine protocol for those entering the district from outside was also removed, making travel an easier option. Initially there was a dominating fear factor but over time, the fear factor has diminished considerably and carelessness has set in.

Dr Dinesh Kharade has requested the residents of Udaipur district to observe maximum possible social distancing during the festival time to ensure that close contact infection is not spread exponentially. He said that an asymptomatic individual may not be aware that he or she is infected and may spread the infection to others, causing a multiplier effect.

Statistics show that the average number of cases per day in July have matched the average number of cases in May, when the strict nationwide lockdown was in place. The lockdown is no longer in place and this will possibly lead to a higher number of cases. Though the recovery rate is well within control, the addition of more symptomatic cases makes the danger more apparent.