Is this The Right time to buy Gold? My Two Cents
'The titanic cannot sink', 'Lehman Brothers is too big to fail', 'gold prices cannot come down'. Er... seems like all of us turn into nostradamus or believe deeply in the prophecies of self-proclaimed-prudent-intellectuals before every big collapse.
‘The titanic cannot sink’, ‘Lehman Brothers is too big to fail’, ‘gold prices cannot come down’. Er… seems like all of us turn into nostradamus or believe deeply in the prophecies of self-proclaimed-prudent-intellectuals before every big collapse.
History has shown us time and again that their is always an end, usually grim, to the greed and complacency ridden kingdoms, corporates, markets and czars. But still how easily we fall into the mirage of owning an ‘uncle scrooge’s vault’ only to realize that swimming in the sea of coins is just a crazy imagination.
Now, someone might point out that I am exaggerating the fall in gold. As a matter of fact, yes I am! Just wait for another utterly-small troubled European country like Cyprus to declare that they will need to sell some tons of the aureate bricks from their vault and all the exaggeration would sound understated. Some of the most reputed international journals and newspapers are already pointing out their outlook on gold as ‘Dull’.
Wait a minute! Did I just play a doom-sayer? Sorry. Let me give a bull’s forecast then. Since Akshay Tritiya is round the corner and marriage season has just started in India, so further fall in the gold is unlikely. The nation with the largest base of gold hungry consumers in the world is going to save the day. Gold cannot go lower than this and it will rise and shine again to touch the new highs. Go, grab the opportunity!
You can believe whichever theory you want; be a bear or a bull, its your wish. All I want to remind here is a tough lesson I, and many others, learnt during the school days, I’ll quote my teacher – “Sab kuein me kudenge to tum bhi kudoge kya?”.
I am sure all the readers would have heard this, but we still keep doing something because everybody is doing it! Even after getting hurt several times, people are just waiting for some other learned-prescient-we-know-it-all people to declare if it is the right time to buy gold or not. Sigh!
So, what should the general part-time middle class investor do? (Disclaimer: Next three paragraphs might sound preachy)
Try a more methodical, informative and active approach. Listen to everybody, do not just follow the majority half wits. Stay informed. Stay updated about the huge turmoil and transformations that are happening around the world. Have a look at the historical prices. Decide a certain return that you want with your investment. Do not wait until the prices start dropping again. Don’t be GREEDY; sell it the moment you achieve your target.
Conversely, buy the moment you find prices low enough for you. Again, don’t be GREEDY. Nobody can determine the lowest price or the highest price. Nobody in this world could have imagined that the shiny metal could touch Rs. 32000/ 10 gram until it crossed Rs. 27000 mark; and when it touched the elusive figure, they said it’ll reach Rs. 35000. Similarly, nobody in this world could foretell the acute drop in the prices until it happened.
Most importantly, if you buy gold just for its sentimental and cultural value or for its lustrous looks or because you want to gift a beautiful necklace to a dear one, then go for it anytime. Prices will flicker but the non-reactive metal will never lose its shine and you would never want to sell it anyways.
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