Udaipur - Extension of Lockdown or Relief for Livelihood - a call with repercussions in either case

Udaipur - Extension of Lockdown or Relief for Livelihood - a call with repercussions in either case

As the numbers make a fair case for relaxing lockdown restrictions, the story at the critical end is something else.

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Hospitality Rate is increasing and has doubled in the last one month. Are the positive cases more serious in nature?

The number of positive cases has touched below 150 per day, with 137 positive samples being reported by the authorities today. The positivity rate has gone below 5%. This decrease seems to be phenomenal, considering that we were at 15% a week back with 378 cases reported on 22 May and at 26% with nearly 1000 cases on 15 May.

It is apparent that the lockdown effect has finally set in on the infection rate and the numbers are back to where they were a couple of days before lockdown was imposed.  On the other hand, some numbers and analysis related to hospitalization and deaths tell a different story.

While the positivity rate and the positive cases are decreasing considerably, the last week has seen a substantial increase in the hospitalization percentage. The hospitalization rate on 1 May was 11% (Total Hospitalised as a percentage of Total Active cases). The hospitalization rate increased to 17% around 9 May, when the positivity rate had crossed 30%. There was again a dip and the hospitalization rate as well as positivity rate were 15% on 23 May.

However, after 23 May, we have been given official numbers that show a significant fall in positive cases and positivity ratio, which is now 5%.  The Hospitalization rate after 23 May, has however doubled and now stands between 22%-24%, which is twice the rate as on 1 May. The hospitals and health care system has strengthened its capacity and capability in the last 45 days, which has resulted in the exponential increase in cured patients. Mathematically, the number of patients cured per day will be approximately 3 times the number of positive patients, because the number of new cases are decreasing exponentially, which is a no brainer.

The number of deaths per day averaged at 13 in the last one 15 days. A total of 6 deaths were reported by the CMHO today, while the funeral site (Shamshan) at Ashok Nagar alone, witnessed a total of 6 funerals related to COVID deaths today morning.

Are the hospitals submitting the correct numbers to the CMHO? Are the deaths at home due to COVID being reported or monitored even?

The hospitalization rate and number of deaths per day are a cause of concern and while the number of patients are decreasing , a wide opening up of the lockdown could spell disaster. All the hard work of the last 6 weeks would come to nought IF an unplanned, unrestricted release of lockdown is implemented. A phased release permitting improving in livelihood in the week after 1 June along with permitting activities under MNREGA will possibly be a midway approach that the government / administration might want to look at.

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