Market Commentary: Nifty Ends Slightly Lower, Rupee Hits Record Low

Mumbai, Sept 23, 2025: Indian benchmark indices witnessed high volatility and ended the session slightly lower. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid concerns over currency depreciation, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and global policy uncertainties. Despite the choppiness, selective buying in major banks, steelmakers, and auto stocks offered some support to the market. The Nifty index opened on a weak note and hit an intraday low of 25,084 during the mid-session. However, strong buying at lower levels helped the index recover sharply, reaching an intraday high of 25,261 in the second half. Eventually, the index gave up part of its gains and closed at 25,169.50, down 33 points or 0.13%. The Indian rupee weakened further, hitting a record low and settling at 88.75 against the US dollar.

Sector-wise, the Nifty Metal index gained 1.0%, while banking stocks aided the recovery — with the Nifty Bank up 0.4% and the PSU Bank index advancing 1.1%. The Nifty Auto index also rose 0.62%, supported by upbeat sentiment around festive demand. In contrast, the Nifty FMCG, IT, and Media indices ended lower, declining by 1.3%, 0.7%, and 0.66%, respectively. Broader markets too faced selling pressure, with the Nifty Midcap 100 declining 0.35% and the Nifty Smallcap index slipping 0.53%.

Nifty Outlook

The index formed a second consecutive high wave candle with a lower high and lower low in the daily chart. The price action underscores consolidation with corrective bias for the third session in a row at an elevated levels following a sharp 1,000-point rally over the past three weeks. Nifty on expected lines is seen consolidating in a range for the third session in a row. We expect it to extend the same and trade in the range of 25,500–25,000 in the coming sessions. The immediate support base is seen at 25,100–24,900, which coincides with the confluence of the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA). We maintain the overall positive bias and believe the ongoing corrective pullback presents a tactical buying opportunity within the broader uptrend. On the upside, the index faces immediate resistance at the 25,500–25,600 zone.

Bank nifty Outlook

The Bank Nifty has formed a bull candle highlighting buying demand around the 50 days EMA. Index is seen consolidating in the range of 56,000–54,700, thus working off the overbought condition in the daily chart developed after a strong 2300 points up move in the last 3 weeks. We expect the index to extend the consolidation and trade in the range of 54,700-56,000. Immediate support is placed at 54,700-54,900 levels being the confluence of the last week low and 20 days EMA. While key support is placed at 54,000 levels, being the key retracement of the entire decline. We maintain a positive bias and believe the ongoing consolidation presents a buying opportunity. On the upside, the index faces initial resistance at the 56,000 zone. A sustained breakout above this supply zone could trigger a fresh leg of momentum, potentially opening the gates for a move towards the 57,000 marks in the coming weeks.

Conclusion

Indian markets witnessed a highly volatile session on Tuesday as a steep hike in H-1B visa fees kept investor sentiment cautious, prompting a flat-to-weak opening. Nifty initially faced selling pressure from the 25,250 zone and slipped to an intraday low of 25,100, where it found strong support. From there, the index staged a sharp recovery to touch the day’s high, reflecting strong buying interest at lower levels.

The rebound was primarily driven by strength in the banking pack, with Axis Bank, SBI, Bajaj Finance, and Kotak Bank emerging as the key contributors to Nifty’s gains. Metals and automobile stocks also lent support, adding momentum to the late-session rally. On the derivatives front, notable open interest build-up was observed in ASHOKLEY, MARUTI, ADANIGREEN, 360ONE, and MPHASIS, indicating heightened activity and positioning in these counters.

Courtesy: Bajaj Broking, Ashika