Fitch Upgrades India’s Growth Forecast for FY 2025-26 to 6.9%

Sept 11, 2025 - American rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised India’s GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2025-26 from 6.5% to 6.9%, citing strong domestic demand and favourable financial conditions.

However, Fitch has projected that annual growth may slow down in the second half of the fiscal year. Consequently, growth in the next financial year, 2026–27, is expected to decelerate to 6.3%, and to 6.2% in 2027-28, as the economy is currently operating slightly above its capacity.

The agency also noted that the “Trump Tariffs” are unlikely to have a significant impact on the Indian economy. Fitch said that the strong 7.8% growth in the June quarter, along with July’s industrial production data and the PMI survey, all indicate a resilient and robust Indian economy.

India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), V. Anantha Nageswaran, has said that GST reforms would help mitigate the effects of the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Indian goods. He expressed confidence that the net impact of the tariffs on India’s GDP growth for the current fiscal year would be limited to just 0.2%-0.3%.

He also mentioned that early indicators from the second quarter (July–September) suggest that the GDP figures for Q2 will also be positive.

Source: Media Reports

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