NYT gives Kamala Harris a small lead over Donald Trump in the national polling averages with 49% Vs 48%
October 30, 2024 – As the US presidential campaign heads into its last week, pollsters predict a tight fight between the two main contenders – Kamala Harris of the Democratic party and Donald J. Trump of the Republican party. Election day is November 5 but already more than 41 million Americans have cast their votes either through early in-person voting or via mail-in ballot.
In the last few days the gap between the two main contenders for the office has narrowed. New York Times (NYT) poll of polls gives Harris a small lead over Trump in the national polling averages with 49% versus 48% to Trump.
Silver Bulletin polling averages indicate Harris at approximately 48.6% and Trump at 47.4%.
A survey by Morning Consult show a Harris lead by 3% nationally (50% to 47%) in a poll of 8,807 likely voters. Reuters/Ipsos shows Harris holding a minor lead of 44% to 43% in favour of Trump among 975 registered voters. Among the likeliest voters, Harris leads 47% to 46%.
Harris and Trump are aggressively competing in the seven swing States that will ultimately decide the results. They are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and the three so-called ‘Blue Wall’ States - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Pollsters say that none of the candidates have a significant lead in these States. Trump's stance on abortion and his Supreme Court appointments have fired up conservative voters, while Harris' stand on Israel may have isolated some Muslim and Arab American voters.
A daily poll tracker by FiveThirtyEight’s indicates a slim lead for Harris in Michigan, and a “razor-thin advantage” in Nevada and Wisconsin. Trump is seen with a slight advantage over Harris in Pennsylvania and with a more noteworthy lead in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.
Pennsylvania, pollsters say, could be the deciding factor this election with 19 electoral votes and no explicit tilt. Polling averages show Trump ahead with 2% in Pennsylvania, while Harris is leading nationally by 1.4 points. However, results indicate that Harris is performing better in Pennsylvania than President Joe Biden was earlier this year.
A poll in North Carolina by SurveyUSA/WRAL show Harris and Trump are tied at 47% in the State among 853 likely voters.
Counting of votes will begin on November 5 itself, but it could be days before we know who will be the next US President.
With inputs from media reports
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